Elections are increasingly flashpoints for violence. Chinas a rising power, and already an extraordinary power. If a parking lot at regional hospitals in Wuhan if parking lots are suddenly full compared to last year, maybe that tells us something. Pro-democracy groups say more than 60 elections have been postponed during COVID, and more than 40 countries have restricted press freedom. If injustice and oppression arent bad enough, authoritarian governments bear an enormous social cost. And one of the things that is apparent when you read the assessment is that several agency heads, including former Attorney General Bill Barr and former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, his predecessor Ric Grenell, National Security Adviser OBrien, and others were not candid with the country. On why nationalism and authoritarianism is spreading globally: The first was the excess of globalization, the excess of capitalism, and the creation of exploding inequality happening at the same time that globalization is kind of encroaching on people's national identity or tribal identity And how do we work with our partners to protect American democracy more broadly overseas? And I know that he spends just as much time working for his district as he does for all of us. Our current situation started with a botched diagnosis. Autocracies pose a particular threat to gender equity and the rights of historically marginalized people, including women and LGBTQ+ people. Authoritarian leaders are increasingly collaborating with one another to spread new forms of repression and rebuff democratic pressure. This is a tactic that is used by authoritarians all over the world. Some of it we saw with COVID-19. The rise of American authoritarianism is transforming the Republican Party and the dynamics of national politics, with profound consequences likely to extend well beyond this election. What Russia and, I think, China are most concerned about with the Biden administration is the administrations ability to rebuild those multilateral relationships, to reinvigorate those global institutions. hide caption. If injustice and oppression arent bad enough, authoritarian governments bear an enormous social cost. Even today, too many think of Trump more as Sarah Palin in 2012 rather than Viktor Orbn in 2022. There are plenty of medicines that would cure it. Back in 2016, of course, they, in addition to their covert and overt media, they also hacked Democratic institutions and leaked the documents through cutouts. Nick Schifrin But we should be honest: The optimistic assessment from experts who study authoritarianism globally is that the United States will most likely settle into a dysfunctional equilibrium that mirrors a deep democratic breakdown. Our democracy, like every democracy, requires work. It is notable that China was deterred. It was a requirement that we placed in the Intelligence Authorization Act, that after an election that the intelligence community produce an assessment that analyzes what foreign powers did to try to interfere to have a full accounting so that the Congress could take whatever steps were necessary to hold other nations responsible that had interfered in our affairs, but also to make sure that we took additional protective steps to safeguard our democracy. What happened? WebAuthoritarian rule can also have unintended consequences for regional security, Taussig says, such as when regimes domestic repressive circumstances breed instability, generate refugees and lead to violent extremism. Even if he won, they thought, hed tweet like a populist firebrand while governing like a Romney Republican, constrained by the system. Nationalism and authoritarianism are on the march, writes The Washington Post: Democracy as an ideal and in practice seems under siege. Yes, and there are reasons for this. I was reading the intelligence. Autocrats in Beijing and Moscow want to co-opt the label of democracy to boost their own credibility while undermining actual democracy worldwide. And really, the importance of allies and partners become important because this is about authoritarianism and in many ways versus democratic institutions, the U.S. and its allies around the world. Szeleczki says her mother's death could have been prevented, and that, in Hungary, no one person should have total control. If we dont accurately diagnose and warn the public, were not doing our jobs, and whats more, it leaves us unprepared. They had been incited to violence by opportunistic politicians and media personalities, successfully triggering a coup. Thats why, on January 6, 2021, as zealots and extremists attacked the Capitol, I felt an unusual emotion mixed in with the horror and sadness: a dark sense that there was a silver lining. And where I wanted to start was to pick up on your use of the term deterrence here. Freedom House says 2019 was the 14th consecutive year of decline in their Global Freedom Index. When youre facing off against an authoritarian political movement, each election is an existential threat to democracy. Turkey was once a haven for Chinas persecuted Uyghur population. Layla Quran is a general assignment producer for PBS NewsHour. Nationalism and authoritarianism are on the march, writes The Washington Post: Democracy as an ideal and in practice seems under siege. Yes, and there are reasons for this. The SolarWinds hack is a prime example of just how extraordinarily vulnerable we are, particularly to supply chain cyber actions. COVID has emboldened would-be dictators. But when democracies start dyingas ours already hasthey usually dont recover. And so I dont think we had much of a choice. Have you ever spotted a breathless octobox of talking heads on CNN or Fox News debating the death of democracy in Turkey, Sri Lanka, or the Philippines? That gets to the broader issue of politicization of intelligence. To discuss that and how authoritarianism has spread during COVID, I'm joined by Anne Applebaum, staff writer at "The Atlantic, " a historian on Central and Eastern Europe, and author of a new book just out, "Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism. But Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoan has increasingly shifted his stance to meet Beijings demands: Turkish authorities have made it harder for Uyghurs to obtain and keep permanent residence permits, and several hundred have been detained in deportation centers. Great introductory comments. But that may be the necessary treatment for now, because Republican leaders are defining a vision of a Trumpist GOP that could prove more durable than the man himself., From the December 2021 issue: The bad guys are winning, Frantz concurred: What did surprise me and change my assessment was the Republican Partys decision to continue to embrace Trump and stand by him. What is your sense of the threat and how do we counter and respond to Chinese attempts to purchase American companies, whether its defense or dual use, the espionage concerns that the U.S. continues to have about the stealing of a wide range of information, both commercial and defense related? Autocracies pose a particular threat to gender equity and the rights of historically marginalized people, including women and LGBTQ+ people. The past 18 months portend a post-Trump GOP future that remains authoritarian: Trumpism without Trump. We have a question that is takes this particular subject, on the politicization of intelligence, but in a slightly different direction. And were going to explore that today because authoritarianism is on in the rise. Read: UN secretary-general: American power is in decline, the world is in pieces. I want to underscore in every way that I can that I want the intelligence analysts and others to report to us exactly what their best assessments are, whether they think we want to hear it or they dont. They, obviously, have to deal with Taiwan. Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, I think the threat is extraordinarily grave. In Hong Kong, the pro-Beijing legislative council cited COVID to postpone a planned September vote that it was expected to lose. The problem with the Chinese argument is that it's undermined by their own actions during the crisis and the fact that it was the Chinese government that first denied that the pandemic was dangerous. Corruption is growing. I was very proud to see Joe Biden stand up to Vladimir Putin. The police in one country can arm, equip, and train the police in another. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Authoritarianism is a form of government characterised by strong central powers and limited political freedoms. At some point, Trumps spell over the country and his party could break. Our capabilities are obviously far greater than North Koreas, but our vulnerabilities are also far greater. In 2009, a violent mob stormed the presidential palace in Madagascar, a deeply impoverished red-earthed island off the coast of East Africa. newsletter for analysis you wont find anywhereelse. And really, the very best defense is one we were not capable over the last four years. And so this we consider one of our highest priorities on the committee. According to pro-democracy institutions, authoritarianism was on the rise globally even before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Its dying. And, you know, the two aspects of this the theft of data and the export of technology surveillance technology they go hand-in-hand. I don't think they would've been able to do this, because there would be much more attention, much more criticism, at a time when we weren't going through a global pandemic. Its not yet too late to avoid that. Democratic governments must rally to counter authoritarian abuses and support the brave human rights defenders fighting for freedom around the world. For decades, the United States has proclaimed itself a shining city upon a hill, a beacon of democracy that can lead broken nations out of their despotic darkness. But we were aware of this in real time. The vote was upheld by Duda's handpicked Supreme Court. But what we did see was the willingness of the Kremlin to use U.S. persons to launder their disinformation. Eventually, the authoritarian party will win. But second, thats not how you treat an ally and one of our most important intelligence allies. When Trump first rose to political prominence, much of the American political class reacted with amusement, seeing him as a sideshow. After all, America has much more robust democratic institutions than Hungary, Poland, the Philippines, or Turkey. According to pro-democracy institutions, authoritarianism was on the rise globally even before the coronavirus pandemic hit. So I think we should be unabashed about it. In other words, he passed a decree, or an order, that said that, from for the period as long, as he wanted, in fact, he would be able to rule by decree. Thank you, sir. And they were able to successfully launder some of that information through U.S. persons, including people in Congress, and that ought to be a warning to us. The result is I think others watched and they learned that, well, they too could get away with this. Transcript And in the case of those two very important investigations, we ultimately were forced with the choice particularly after the infamous midnight run of doing a real investigation, which meant that it was going to be difficult and fractious, or in the name of bipartisanship doing a whitewash and calling it progress. Authoritarians in every region are working together to consolidate power and accelerate their attacks on democracy and human rights, according to Freedom in the World 2022: The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule. WebAuthoritarian rule can also have unintended consequences for regional security, Taussig says, such as when regimes domestic repressive circumstances breed instability, generate refugees and lead to violent extremism. So I think we need to be careful that we dont allow them to characterize organic movements of people around the world as somehow the hidden hand of the CIA. 1850 M St. NW Floor 11 And so I think that the effort to communicate that America is back; that we value, need, are much better off with strong allies. You have known many of the players. And Poland was one example we just cited, Hungary. Were more likely to see civil wars break out within those environments, she said, citing Syria as a prime example. And it brought home, I think, a fundamental truth, which is when we strengthen our own democracy, we strengthen the very idea of democracy around the world. Guinea and Haiti were downgraded from Partly Free to Not Free in connection with a military coup and the presidents assassination, respectively. Many of the countries that have dealt best with the virus are democracies. And the worst may be yet to come. The House majority that is, the Democratic members of the Intelligence Committee agreed with the bipartisan work of the Senate Intelligence Committee. I think the intel-to-intel relationships have remained strong, but nonetheless we have some rebuilding to do. The former president, Donald Trump, was the gift that kept on giving to the Russians. It was America first and everybody else be damned and as if we could isolate our own security from the need to work with others. But, you know, I believe in accountability. The pandemic and weve we have, as a requirement of our last intelligence bill, asked for a national intelligence estimate on the impact of the pandemic, and I hope that well examine the impact on the rise of authoritarianism, even as it analyzes other things like the degree to which it might have provided even more fertile soil for the growth of terrorist organizations like ISIS or Al-Qaeda or al-Shabaab or others. According to pro-democracy institutions, authoritarianism was on the rise globally even before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Rep. Adam Schiff: Well, I think that 5G presents us with a real test case, that forces us to consider whether we need to make changes to the level of public-private partnership to compete with a country that can throw billions and billions of dollars to underprice any competition globally so that it can obtain a monopoly, and then it can raise prices at will, or utilize that technology for global espionage. There are continuing divisions in our country over the election. When we look at authoritarian regimes its one of the subjects of the discussion today, the rise of authoritarianism across the globe you know, countries like China are weak and vulnerable in areas. It may require new kinds of politics. For decades, libertarians have focused on illiberalism coming from the political left. They went from being very positive, constructive, and essential to, often, relationships of hostility where the president of the United States was affirmatively hostile to our closest democratic allies and embracing of autocrats around the world in a love affair with Kim Jong-un and speaking glowingly of Vladimir Putin and his relationship with President Xi. And I know thats how the president, President Biden, feels about it. Szeleczki's mother was suffering from kidney cancer when she was sent home to make room for COVID patients. And so and there are a number of autocracies, at the same time, that have done badly. John, really appreciate the opportunity. So I think it has to be very much a part of our agenda. But nonetheless, China is a very powerful competitor. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and Governments are becoming less transparent and have lost the trust of the people. But virtually all of those ideas are currently political fantasies. So really appreciate you touching on a number of these issues with us at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. So whats actually in that report thats of significance? I was doing you know, more than four years ago I started to do townhalls within the intelligence community at different agencies and Im going to go back to doing that. And there are any number of tools that can be used if theyre able to tip and cue each other. So this well get into other challenges we have that I look forward to discussing, in terms of the information environment in which many of those kind of falsehoods are subject to amplification. The U.S. still has a chance to fix itself before 2024. And so rebuilding that trust is going to be important. But the longer we wait, the more the cancer of authoritarianism will spread. The agony persists over years. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's government has arrested more than a dozen people for criticizing the official COVID response. But it has to be reciprocated. And it crosses every domain. And I think you know, I think Americans in general would certainly support that, from both sides of the aisle. Checks on abuse of power and human rights violations have eroded within nations and international organizations alike, dealing a serious blow to democracys foundations and reputation. And I think we have to acknowledge that there is a part of every society that doesn't like the cacophony and noise of democracy and the arguments, that doesn't like the fact that democracies can't take instant decisions, the way autocracies can. Depending on the severity of what they do, we should use both defensive and offensive means. And it may be that all of us are going to have to be a lot more involved in politics and think a lot harder about how to ensure that our democracy survives than we ever expected to. Thanks, Chairman Schiff. Eventually, the authoritarian party will win. Thank you. So the long and the short of it is we need to use the tools that we have, taking none of them off the table, but letting other nations know that this is not a freebee, that they will pay a price. Authoritarians in every region are working together to consolidate power and accelerate their attacks on democracy and human rights, according to Freedom in the World 2022: The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule. Governments are becoming less transparent and have lost the trust of the people. The outliers were the GOP members of our committee, led by Ranking Member or Chairman Nunes, depending on the time. As practiced, the liberal democratic apparatus has not delivered, and so we are seeing the rising discontent of the underclasses and the deep disillusionment of those excluded from the growth seen after the supposed restoration of democracy. I. As we sipped our coffees and I asked them questions, one of the generals I was interviewing interrupted me. Eventually, the authoritarian party will win. In all three cases, a political shock acted as a wake-up call, in which the would-be autocrat was removed and their political movement either destroyed or reformed. But theres a broader threat. We may not be doomed. Thats not you know, first of all, it was totally false. Very quickly, the ruling classes hijacked people power and hoarded the economic dividends arising The Authoritarian Personality, in short, is both us and U.S. Theres a question here that builds on your comments on Chinese technology. Weve covered a lot of ground, from support to democratic movements overseas, to technology, to Covid-19. Democracy is in real danger all over the globe, said Michael J. Abramowitz, president of Freedom House. And not just you know, its actually less important after the fact than it is while its ongoing. You have seen them shift over the decades from advocating democracy to eroding, in some of their cases, rule of law. This is why its vital to be open about whats happening to raise the specter of authoritarianism. And were grateful that hell be with us today. Worse, the outlook for the human rights condition in authoritarian regimes is even bleaker. The best defense for us is to develop a national consensus that regardless of who it helps or who it hurts, both parties will condemn any kind of foreign interference, and neither will seek to exploit it. Thank you for the kind words and thank you for bringing us all together today. On why nationalism and authoritarianism is spreading globally: The first was the excess of globalization, the excess of capitalism, and the creation of exploding inequality happening at the same time that globalization is kind of encroaching on people's national identity or tribal identity Barring an electoral wipeout of Republicans in 2022 (which looks extremely unlikely), the idea that the party will suddenly abandon its anti-democracy positioning is a delusion. The period following the Capitol riots was a critical one, and the partys response was a turning point.. I think we have time probably for one last question and it builds on what you just noted, which is which is COVID-19 pandemic. National Affairs. After Trump stoked a bona fide insurrection, the threat to democracy would be impossible to ignore. I would I would expect that without the ability to gather particularly large numbers for a time that provided another advantage for autocrats. But in Putins worldview, there are no democrats; there are only autocrats and hypocrites. So ultimately, in terms of the rise or fall of global democracy, China presents the gravest model. The governments of Russia, China, Turkey, and others have economically supported the Maduro regime in Venezuela, offsetting sanctions imposed by democracies for its rigged elections and crackdowns on the opposition. Rep. Adam Schiff: No, I think youre absolutely right. You know, there were, certainly, efforts at spear phishing and other malign activities. DoD's Office of Strategic Capital: Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security, The Future of Quantum - Building a Global Market, Future of U.S. But to do that, Democrats need to win every election. Thus Yeltsin calling in an artillery strike on the Russian legislature was "democratic," but Poland's social conservatives winning an outright majority in the recent election is "authoritarian." So I was proud to see Tony Blinken being unabashed in championing human rights and bringing up the situation involving the Uighurs and in Hong Kong and elsewhere. But this is these are different political systems. Find more of our programs online. The greater the Chinese economic might, the greater it can use its currency to buy friends and influence people around the world to utilize its technologies, like Huawei, by heavily subsidizing those technologies. Corruption is growing. Nyhan believes there is now a significant risk that the 2024 election outcome will be illegitimate. And, sometimes, this is a cultural disappointment. An authoritarian leadership style is exemplified when a leader dictates policies and procedures and goals to be achieved and directs and controls all activities without any meaningful participation by his subordinates. As practiced, the liberal democratic apparatus has not delivered, and so we are seeing the rising discontent of the underclasses and the deep disillusionment of those excluded from the growth seen after the supposed restoration of democracy. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and Frantz pointed to Ecuador, Slovenia, and South Korea as recent examples. But even if we find workarounds to 5G, there may not be a workaround to the next big thing, technologically. And Ive been talking with my Republican colleagues about trying to do exactly that. Democracies cant depend on one of two major parties never holding power, argues Brendan Nyhan, a government professor at Dartmouth College and a co-founder of Bright Line Watch, a group that monitors the erosion of American democracy. Hes been a champion throughout his career for upholding and strengthening democracy and rule of law. In Hungary, Orban withheld COVID relief money from his political opponents. You know, we still have, I think, tremendous advantages over China, and one of them is our system. (Poland is discussed if Air Force One goes to Warsaw; Iran flits into view only in relation to Washingtons nuclear diplomacy; Madagascar appears only in cartoon form, mostly featuring talking animals that dont actually live there.) Nowadays, autocracies are run not by one bad guy, but by sophisticated networks composed of kleptocratic financial structures, security services (military, police, paramilitary groups, surveillance), and professional propagandists. Political rights and civil liberties have declined worldwide for each of the past 16 years, raising the prospect that autocracy could overtake democracy as the governance model guiding international standards of behavior. Political parties with anti-democratic beliefs take over democratic countries. So some consistency. The Kremlin has continued to prop up Alyaksandr Lukashenkas dictatorship in Belarus since providing propagandists and security assistance to help suppress opposition protests following the countrys fraudulent August 2020 presidential election. The space of civil society is increasingly under pressure. But, nonetheless, China was deterred from intervening in the way that Russia had. The basic problem is that one of the two major parties in the U.S.the Trumpified Republican Partyhas become authoritarian to its core. concerns it wouldn't be safe or fair. Seth G. Jones: Great. It hurts a lot that she is not with us anymore. 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